Bitcoin fair value
Where Bitcoin's price would be on its long-term trend, and how far from it it is today.
Data as of 22 Oct 2026
The price of $81,257 is 39% below the trend value of $133,464. That equals -0.74 standard deviations. Since 2011 the price has spent most of its time within ±1 standard deviation.
The trend curve is derived from the past and every cycle so far has been milder than the previous one, so it cannot be relied on as a target.
Price, trend and the ±1 standard deviation band
Logarithmic scale, including a two-year projection of the trend.
Deviation from the trend in standard deviations
Values above +1 marked hot phases of the market, below −1 cheap phases.
Frequently asked questions
What does Bitcoin's fair value mean in this chart?
It is the value on a long-term trend curve fitted through the whole price history. It does not say what Bitcoin "really" costs, only where the price would be if it followed its long-term growth so far.
What is a power law?
A mathematical relationship in which the logarithm of the price grows in proportion to the logarithm of Bitcoin's age. On a chart with logarithmic axes it is a straight line. The historical data fits it remarkably well, but the model describes the past, it is not a law.
Is a price above the trend bad?
No. Bitcoin normally moves within roughly plus or minus one standard deviation and briefly rises far higher in bubbles. The position against the trend is context, not a signal.
Sources: CoinMetrics Community (price). The regression is our own calculation over the history since 2011. For information only, not investment advice.