Pi Cycle Top: a cycle-top signal
It tracks whether Bitcoin's short-term price average has caught up with the long-term one. In the past the signal appeared near cycle tops.
Data as of 22 Oct 2026
The 111-day average is at 48.2% of twice the 350-day average. The signal occurs at 100%.
The indicator is context, not a forecast: only a few past tops are available and the last cycle was an outlier.
Price and two moving averages
Logarithmic scale. The signal occurs when the orange line (111 days) rises above the blue one (350 days × 2).
What happened after each crossing
The highest price in the following 365 days.
| Crossing | Price | High within a year | After days |
|---|---|---|---|
| 6 Apr 2013 | $143 | $1,135 (4 Dec 2013) | 242 |
| 5 Dec 2013 | $1,027 | $1,027 (5 Dec 2013) | 0 |
| 16 Dec 2017 | $19,641 | $19,641 (16 Dec 2017) | 0 |
| 12 Apr 2021 | $59,906 | $67,542 (8 Nov 2021) | 210 |
Frequently asked questions
What is Pi Cycle Top?
An indicator that tracks when Bitcoin's 111-day moving average crosses above twice its 350-day average. The numbers 111 and 350 × 2 approach the ratio of pi (350/111 ≈ 3.15), hence the name. So far this signal has come shortly before cycle tops.
How many times has the indicator worked?
Since 2012 we found 4 crossings in the data. For 2 of them the highest price of the following year came within 30 days; for the others it came months later (see the table below). With so few cases it is more of a curiosity than a statistically verified signal.
Does it mean it is safe if the lines do not cross?
No. After the last crossing (12 Apr 2021) the price reached a new high on 6 Oct 2025 at $124,824 and the indicator did not trigger at it. Never rely on a single indicator.
Sources: CoinMetrics Community (price). For information only, not investment advice.