Bitcoin MVRV and NUPL
How far Bitcoin is above the price at which coins last moved, and how many holders are in profit. History since 2011.
Data as of 22 Oct 2026
The market is in modest profit. The middle phase of a cycle, still without euphoria.
MVRV is 1.50×. Historically bottoms were below 1, the normal range 1 to 2.4 and cycle tops around 3.5 and higher. The bands are for orientation, not an order to trade.
MVRV over time
The ratio of market to realized value. Lines: 1 (price = realized price) and 3.7 (the historical area of tops).
NUPL over time
Bands: below 0 capitulation, 0 to 0.25 hope, 0.25 to 0.5 optimism, 0.5 to 0.75 belief, above 0.75 euphoria.
Price and realized price
Logarithmic scale. When the price falls below the realized price, the average holder is at a loss.
Frequently asked questions
What is MVRV?
The ratio of Bitcoin's market value to its realized value. Realized value counts every bitcoin at the price it last moved at, so it estimates how much money investors have actually put into the network. An MVRV of 1.5 means the market is worth 50% more than that invested money.
What is NUPL?
Net unrealized profit and loss, expressed as a share of market value. It shows what part of Bitcoin's value is just paper profit. It is derived from MVRV with the formula 1 − 1/MVRV, which is why the two indicators have the same shape.
What is the realized price?
The average price at which holders last moved their bitcoins. When Bitcoin's price falls below it, the average holder is at a loss. Historically it formed strong support in bear markets.
Can the bands be used as a buy and sell signal?
Only as context. The thresholds come from the few cycles since 2011 and each cycle has been milder than the previous one. Do not take them as a forecast.
Sources: CoinMetrics Community. Realized price and NUPL are derived from MVRV and the price. The MVRV Z-score uses the variance of market cap over the whole history so far. For information only, not investment advice.