The business cycle and Bitcoin
Copper against gold, manufacturing activity and industrial production: where the economy is in the cycle and how Bitcoin's tops behaved against it.
Data as of 23 Oct 2026
The MACD histogram of the copper/gold ratio is +0.0367. The Fed surveys show manufacturing activity above zero (21.5) and industrial production is rising 2.2% year on year.
Positive cycle momentum has historically been favourable for risky assets. But the four Bitcoin tops so far are too few to make a rule.
Copper/gold ratio against the Bitcoin price
Copper (USD/lb) to gold (USD/oz), in per mille. Bitcoin on a logarithmic scale.
MACD of the copper/gold ratio
A histogram above zero means accelerating momentum of the business cycle.
Manufacturing activity against Bitcoin
Three-month average of the regional Fed surveys (Philadelphia, New York, Dallas). Zero is the expansion threshold.
Bitcoin cycle tops
The highest daily price in each cycle and the MACD histogram of the copper/gold ratio in that month.
| Date | BTC price | MACD histogram |
|---|---|---|
| 4 Dec 2013 | $1,135 | +0.0291 |
| 16 Dec 2017 | $19,641 | +0.0330 |
| 8 Nov 2021 | $67,542 | +0.0346 |
| 6 Oct 2025 | $124,824 | -0.0240 |
Frequently asked questions
What is the copper/gold ratio?
The price of copper (dollars per pound) divided by the price of gold (dollars per ounce), here in per mille. Copper is consumed in manufacturing and construction, gold is bought in times of fear. A rising ratio signals an accelerating economy and an appetite for risk, a falling one a flight to safety.
What is the MACD of the ratio?
The difference between a short-term and a long-term moving average (EMA of 12 and 26 months) of the logarithm of the ratio, with a monthly signal line (EMA 9). A positive histogram means accelerating momentum of the business cycle.
Why is ISM PMI not here?
ISM licenses its data and there is no free source with a long history. A substitute is the three-month average of the regional Fed surveys (Philadelphia, New York, Dallas). It measures the same thing, namely orders, output and employment in manufacturing, only with the expansion threshold at zero, not at fifty.
Can the cycle predict Bitcoin's price?
No. Four Bitcoin cycle tops are too few for statistics and each formed under different conditions. The cycle serves as context.
Sources: Yahoo Finance (copper, gold), FRED (regional Fed surveys, industrial production), CoinMetrics (BTC price). The copper/gold ratio is from monthly futures closes. The MACD and the percentile are our own calculations. For information only, not investment advice.