FedWatch: probability of a Fed rate change
What the market expects from the next FOMC meetings. Calculated from fed funds futures prices.
Data as of 23 Oct 2026
For the meeting on 28 Oct 2026 the market prices a 92% chance that the rate stays in the 3.75–4.00% band, 8.0% for a hike and 0% for a cut. Today's effective rate is 3.88%.
By 8 Dec 2027 futures prices imply a rate of around 4.54% (+66 bp versus today). Higher rates usually weigh on stocks and cryptocurrencies, lower ones support them.
Expected rate after each meeting
The effective federal funds rate (EFFR) implied by futures. The leftmost point is today's value.
Target band probabilities after each meeting
Cumulative, including steps from earlier meetings. Bands are in percent.
| Meeting | 3.75–4.00% | 4.00–4.25% | 4.25–4.50% | 4.50–4.75% |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 28 Oct 2026 | 92% | 8.0% | – | – |
| 9 Dec 2026 | 16% | 84% | – | – |
| 27 Jan 2027 | – | 80% | 20% | – |
| 17 Mar 2027 | – | 27% | 73% | – |
| 28 Apr 2027 | – | – | 90% | 10% |
| 9 Jun 2027 | – | – | 53% | 47% |
| 28 Jul 2027 | – | – | 42% | 58% |
| 15 Sept 2027 | – | – | 26% | 74% |
| 27 Oct 2027 | – | – | 28% | 72% |
| 8 Dec 2027 | – | – | 36% | 64% |
Frequently asked questions
What is FedWatch?
An indicator of what the market expects the Fed's target rate to be after each FOMC meeting. It is based on futures prices on the average federal funds rate, so it shows what money traders agree on, not what the Fed will actually do.
How are the probabilities calculated?
The implied rate for a month is 100 minus the price of the 30-day fed funds futures contract (ZQ). In a month with a meeting, the old rate applies until the decision and the new one after it, and the expected rate after the meeting is derived from the difference. The expected step is spread between the two adjacent 25-basis-point bands of the target rate. For meetings at the end of a month, the following month's contract is used.
Is this the same as the CME FedWatch Tool?
It is the same idea, but our own calculation over delayed futures prices from Yahoo Finance. It can therefore differ by a few percentage points from the official CME tool.
Why are the probabilities at later meetings spread across more bands?
The further away a meeting is, the more uncertainty. The table shows cumulative expectations: the probability that the target rate will be in a given band after that meeting, including all steps from earlier meetings.
Sources: CME fed funds futures via Yahoo Finance, FRED (EFFR rate and target range), Federal Reserve (FOMC dates). Our own calculation from futures, not the official CME FedWatch Tool. For information only, not investment advice.