Bear market radar
Are stocks and crypto in a bear market yet? The radar shows how far the largest markets are from their highs and which warning signals are active right now. We calculate it from real prices and update it regularly.
Stocks
CalmWhich signals these are
- S&P 500: price below the 200-day average
- S&P 500: 50-day average below the 200-day (death cross)
- S&P 500: down 10% or more from its high
- S&P 500: down 20% or more from its high
- Nasdaq Composite: price below the 200-day average
- Nasdaq Composite: 50-day average below the 200-day (death cross)
- Nasdaq Composite: down 10% or more from its high
- Nasdaq Composite: down 20% or more from its high
- DAX: price below the 200-day average
- DAX: 50-day average below the 200-day (death cross)
- DAX: down 10% or more from its high
- DAX: down 20% or more from its high
- Euro Stoxx 50: price below the 200-day average
- Euro Stoxx 50: 50-day average below the 200-day (death cross)
- Euro Stoxx 50: down 10% or more from its high
- Euro Stoxx 50: down 20% or more from its high
- VIX above 25 (elevated fear)
- US yield curve 10Y − 3M is inverted
Crypto
CautionWhich signals these are
- Bitcoin: price below the 200-day average
- Bitcoin: 50-day average below the 200-day (death cross)
- Bitcoin: down 10% or more from its high
- Bitcoin: down 20% or more from its high
- Ethereum: price below the 200-day average
- Ethereum: 50-day average below the 200-day (death cross)
- Ethereum: down 10% or more from its high
- Ethereum: down 20% or more from its high
- Crypto Fear & Greed in the fear zone (25 or less)
Where each market stands
| Market | Value | From the high | vs 200D average | 50/200 averages | Status |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| S&P 500 | 7,723 | -1.2% | +5.8% | 50 above 200 | Near the high |
| Nasdaq Composite | 26,478 | -4.1% | +5.8% | 50 above 200 | Near the high |
| DAX | 25,591 | -3.7% | +2.9% | 50 above 200 | Near the high |
| Euro Stoxx 50 | 6,165 | -5.9% | +1% | 50 above 200 | Near the high |
| Bitcoin | 80,770 | -35.3% | +10.6% | 50 above 200 | Bear market |
| Ethereum | 2,347 | -51.4% | +8.8% | 50 above 200 | Bear market |
High = the highest daily close in all available history. Tap a row to show its chart below.
S&P 500: distance from the high over 5 years
the high was 10/2026Over the year it ranged between 13.5 and 31, averaging 18. Above 30 usually means panic.
10-year yield 4.99%, 3-month 4.04%. Over the year the curve was inverted on 0 of 252 days. Inversions preceded most US recessions.
Yesterday 50, a week ago 55, a month ago 70. Source: alternative.me.
What the big investors are doing
13F filings for the quarter ending 30/09/2026, 3 tracked investors. Filings arrive up to 45 days late.
- Amphenol Corp2 inv.
- Amazon2 inv.
- S&P Global2 inv.
- Meta Platforms2 inv.
- NVIDIA2 inv.
- Alphabet1 inv.
- Applied Matls Inc1 inv.
- Vulcan Matls Co1 inv.
- Equifax Inc1 inv.
- Uber1 inv.
History of bear markets
| High | Low | Fall | Time falling | Back to the high |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1/2022 | 10/2022 | -25.4% | 9 mo. | 15 mo. (1/2024) |
| 2/2020 | 3/2020 | -33.9% | 33 days | 5 mo. (8/2020) |
| 10/2007 | 3/2009 | -56.8% | 17 mo. | 4.1 yr (3/2013) |
| 3/2000 | 10/2002 | -49.1% | 2.5 yr | 4.6 yr (5/2007) |
| 8/1987 | 12/1987 | -33.5% | 3 mo. | 20 mo. (7/1989) |
| 11/1980 | 8/1982 | -27.1% | 20 mo. | 3 mo. (11/1982) |
| 1/1973 | 10/1974 | -48.2% | 21 mo. | 5.8 yr (7/1980) |
Calculated from daily closes since 1/1970. Bear market = a fall of 20% or more from the high. Recovery time is counted from the low to a new high.
How to read the radar
- Fall from the high: how many percent the price is below its highest daily close. 10% or more is a correction, 20% or more a bear market.
- 200-day average: a rough line for the long-term trend. A price below it often means the market is under pressure.
- Death cross: the 50-day average fell below the 200-day. A lagging and often false signal.
- VIX: the index of expected volatility in the US stock market. Above 30 for long usually means panic.
- Yield curve: the gap between 10-year and 3-month US Treasury yields. A negative value is a warning of an economic slowdown.
- Crypto Fear & Greed: a summary of mood from volatility, volumes and social media. Readings up to 25 mean extreme fear.
The number of active signals is a summary of what has happened, not a forecast. A bear market is only recognised in hindsight, and the low is only visible after the rebound. It is therefore not a recommendation to buy or sell.
How to approach falls
Falls are part of investing. Before buying a dip it helps to work out how much an investment has to gain back: a fall of 50% needs a gain of 100%. Long-term investors often use regular investing and diversification. Read What is a bear market, Portfolio diversification and How to read a stock chart. Crypto readers can also see the Altcoin Season Index, and US readers the US macro dashboard.
Frequently asked questions
What is a bear market?
A fall of 20% or more in a market or asset from its last high. A smaller fall of 10% to 20% is called a correction. The opposite is a bull market, a long period of rising prices.
How does the radar decide if a market is in a bear market?
From daily closes we compare today's price with the all-time high and with the 200-day average. We also track whether the 50-day average is below the 200-day (a death cross), the VIX level, the US Treasury yield curve and, for crypto, the Fear & Greed Index.
Is the number of active signals a forecast?
No. It is a plain summary of what has already happened. A bear market is only recognised in hindsight, and signals often warn falsely or late. The radar is for orientation, not a guide to buying or selling.
How long do bear markets last?
For the S&P 500 since 1970, falls from the high to the low lasted from five weeks (2020) to about two and a half years (2000 to 2002), and the recovery from the low back to the old high from a few months to almost six years (1974 to 1980). The exact figures for each episode are in the history table.
What are a death cross and a golden cross?
A death cross occurs when the 50-day average falls below the 200-day; a golden cross is the opposite. They are lagging trend signals that often come after a large part of the fall.
What does an inverted yield curve mean?
Short-term rates are higher than long-term ones. In the US this has preceded most recessions, but with a long delay, and it does not guarantee a fall in stocks.
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For information only, not investment advice. Past performance does not guarantee future results. Data sources: Yahoo Finance, alternative.me, SEC EDGAR.